Bitcoin’s Potentially Long Road Back To $20K
When the price of Bitcoin hit its all-time intraday high of $20,089 on December 17 of 2017, the cryptocurrency market was in peak hysteria in terms of bullish sentiment. From that point, we experienced a very long and hard fall in 2018, with the price of Bitcoin trading as low as $3,191.30 on December 15th of last year, almost a year after it reached its all-time high. Bitcoin stayed in the $3,000 price range until mid-March and then proceeded to have a meteoric 3-month rise, trading as high as $13,796.49 on June 26th of this year.
Ever since then though, we have been on a negative price trend once again in Bitcoin with people wondering when it will stop and questioning when, or if, we will reach new all-time highs in the future. While not 100% indicative of future results, comparing Bitcoin’s 2018–19 bear market and recovery to the one that occurred from 2014 to 2016 can allow us to gauge where we are in our current recovery.
In the chart above, each line represents monthly closing prices as a percentage of its previous all-time high, with the 2014–16 bear market and recovery (orange line) having a previous all-time high of $1,156.14 and the 2018–19 bear market and recovery (red line) having a previous all-time high of $20,089. The lines of both bear markets tend to move fairly close with each other for their first 16 months, with both bear markets reaching their monthly low in their 13th month following its prior all-time high. However, in months 17 and 18 of our current bear market and recovery (red line), there was a high degree of divergence from the previous bear market (orange line), perhaps indicating at the time that we would be testing all-time highs considerably faster than during the previous bear market and recovery. Since month 19 of our current recovery until now though, we have cooled off a bit and are now converging back to the previous bear market and recovery (orange line).
So where do we go from here? I believe that we will ultimately reach new all-time highs in Bitcoin again, but it might not be this year or even the beginning of next year. If Bitcoin’s current recovery takes as long as its previous one from 2014 to 2016, we wouldn’t test all-time highs again until December of next year, and we wouldn’t ultimately surpass the $20,089 level for good until February of 2021. While this might cause panic and seem like a turtle’s pace for many cryptocurrency enthusiasts, we all should remember that potentially generating a return of over 120% if Bitcoin were to reach all-time highs again in 12 to 16 months would still be considered a fantastic return by almost anyone, particularly those in traditional financial markets. Instead of worrying about how long it is taking to reach new all-time highs again, we should be happy about the fact that we are currently outpacing the bear market and recovery from 2014 to 2016. We should really only start to be concerned about the price of Bitcoin if we still haven’t sniffed the $20,089 level by February of 2021 or if we suddenly start to test our lows for 2019 at around the $3,000 level. Until one of those things occur, we should just stay calm and be thankful that we are currently outpacing the previous recovery in Bitcoin.
So how long do you think that it will take to test the $20,089 level in Bitcoin again? Will it be before February of 2021 or after? Will it occur at all?
Bitdollar Fund is a long-term believer in cryptocurrency and aims to reach consensus for important questions like these. We desire to pool resources, both financial and intellectual, for the benefit of our entire community. We plan to procure the best investment ideas from the brightest minds in our field by providing our new secondary token, Crypto Pro, as an incentive. Collectively, we intend to raise the level of debate on the merits and faults of major cryptocurrencies like never before.
Bitdollar Fund will be a place where more experienced members will get paid for their investment ideas by providing content, while less experienced members can learn and benefit within the relative safety of its community. Many retail cryptocurrency investors were scared off during last year’s bear market due to high (negative) volatility, a steep learning curve, and a lack of convenient learning resources. Bitdollar Fund desires to take on all of these issues hindering the mass-market adoption of cryptocurrencies by providing convenience and value to all of our members. If you would like to be an early supporter or contributor of our community and cause, please feel to reach out to me here or on one of our other social channels.
Main project site: BitdollarICO.com
Private sale site: BitdollarFund.com
*Cryptocurrency investing involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Please do your own research or consult your investment professional before investing. Citizens of the USA, Canada, Cayman Islands, Estonia, China, South Korea, Singapore, & New Zealand are not eligible to participate in Phase 1 of the Bitdollar ICO, however, we are working to accept citizens from these countries during future phases of our ICO in 2020 and beyond.
Nick Kitcharoen is Founder and CEO of Bitdollar Capital, which recently launched its private sale for Bitdollar Fund, an incentivized worldwide investment club for major cryptocurrencies. Both planned collectively managed funds from Bitdollar Capital aim to provide clarity to the cryptocurrency community by guiding fundamental analysis and facilitating research, while also providing a relatively safe place for those that are new to cryptocurrencies to get started. Nick has a background in corporate finance and trading in financial markets and was most recently Founder and CEO of Acumen Algorithms LLC, a formerly registered Commodity Trading Advisor, where his sole focus was the development of trading algorithms based entirely on technical analysis.
